International Door & Operator Industry

SEP-OCT 2017

Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.

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(continued from page 23) MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons" who reside in the United States. Its constituents are self-explanatory: Durable goods are "things" - toasters, cars and i-phones, Non-durable goods such as foods, pharmaceuticals and gasoline are "used-up" and Services are intangible values such as medical care, transportation and instruction. Net Export is simply the sum of goods and service sold to people and businesses in other countries minus the sum purchased from other countries. Government consumption & investment is simply the commitment of funds for various goods and services by governmental bodies, federal, state and local. Finally, GPDI reflects the private commitment of funds to "fixed" elements, the value of which will be utilized over years, decades and even centuries. Some intellectual property investments (e.g., art, computer programs) may never lessen in value and my grow exponentially. On the other hand, some poorly designed pieces of equipment may prove to be worthless upon completion. Essentially, GPDI it is what construction is all about – putting assets in place that will have lasting or increasing value. Thus, changes in GPDI are probably a determinant of changes in garage door demand. However, the non-residential and residential components are broader than just construction per se. The nonresidential structures measurement includes new construction, improvements to existing structures, new nonresidential mobile structures, mineral exploration, and equipment that is integral to structures, such as plumbing and electrical systems. The residential structures measurement includes new construction of permanent-site single-family and multifamily units (excluding land), improvements (additions, alterations, and major structural replacements) to housing units, and some types of equipment that are built into structures such as heating and air conditioning equipment. Both measurements include brokerage fees and other less central items. Table A provides a comparison of current dollar values with "Chained Dollar" values. Chaining dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, and to thereby improve comparison of data across multiple years. It involves weighting a "basket" of goods and services that reflects spending patterns. The U.S. Department of Commerce (which calculates and reports GDP and related data) introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Currently, dollars reflect computations with 2009 as the base year. Garage Door Demand Related to GPDI In each of the following charts, the chained 2009 values of GPDI have been utilized to help eliminate price variations over time. In Chart 1, we see an almost perfect correlation of GPDI in residential structures with the demand for sectional garage doors used in the construction of new dwellings (both single and multi-unit). The garage door data reflect dealer installed value. That is, sales to the end-user (home builder), which include the door, peripheral items (track, springs, etc.), ancillary items such Continued on page 26 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 900.0 1,000.0 0.0 140.0 280.0 420.0 560.0 700.0 840.0 980.0 1,120.0 1,260.0 1,400.0 02 1 02 2 02 3 02 4 03 1 03 2 03 3 03 4 04 1 04 2 04 3 04 4 05 1 05 2 05 3 05 4 06 1 06 2 06 3 06 4 07 1 07 2 07 3 07 4 08 1 08 2 08 3 08 4 09 1 09 2 09 3 09 4 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 11 1 11 2 11 3 11 4 12 1 12 2 12 3 12 4 13 1 13 2 13 3 13 4 14 1 14 2 14 3 14 4 15 1 15 2 15 3 15 4 16 1 16 2 16 3 16 4 17 1 17 2 Gross Private Domestic Investment in Residential Structures - $=billions Installed (Dealer) Value of Garage Doors in Newly Built Houses - $=millions Garage Doors in Newly Built Houses - Installed Value GDPI Residential Structures - Chained '09 $ CHART 1 Correlation of Gross Private Domestic Investment in Residential Structures to Installed (Dealer) Value of Garage Doors in Newly Built Houses - Quarterly Data 2002 to mid 2017 ANNUALIZED Installed Value at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates 24 International Door & Operator Industry™

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