International Door & Operator Industry

JUL-AUG 2018

Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.

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46 50 30 International Door & Operator Industry™ As depicted in Chart 3, the U.S. market for commercial sectional product remains significant at nearly $900 million annually, but the once wide gap between sectional and coiling has been closed. Additionally, sheet doors have eroded some of the commercial sectional market, and the "wow" factor of high-speed alternatives makes sectional an obsolete idea in buildings where appearance and customer satisfaction far outweigh cost considerations. Doors for New Residential Construction 2018 to 2025 In early 2018, completion of new residential housing in the U.S. stood at just 59% of the peak pre-recession rate, but the dollar demand for new residential garage doors was almost equal to that of 2006, which remains the high-point of residential construction. In short, since 2005 the average value of doors for new houses has increased by nearly 55%, and the number of doors per housing unit has grown by 18.2%. As noted in Chart 4, demand for new residential doors declined to $218 million at the depth of the recession (which was 2011 for housing), but by the end of 2017 had reestablished itself at $971.0 million. However, some doors for some new houses will likely become an early casualty of driverless cars. Not in all locations, and certainly not for all new houses, but where easily scheduled, hassle-free transportation makes it possible to avoid car (or multiple-car) ownership, the need for multiple garage doors will begin to shrink, probably beginning in four to six years. Doors for Residential Replacement, Renovation & Addition 2018 to 2025 Chart 5 depicts largest segment of industry demand, which is driven by the fact that there are more than 107.5 million residential garage doors in place in the U.S. as of late 2017. Even though 2.3 to 2.5% of those doors get replaced annually (perhaps as many as 7.0 to 10..0% warrant an upgrade), the numbers translate MANAGEMENT Continued from page 28 www.zollerconsulting.com © 2018 ZCI. All Rights Reserved $ = Millions 250.0 414.3 578.6 742.9 907.1 1,071.4 1,235.7 1,400.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 COMMERCIAL SECTIONAL Overhead Type Garage Doors Recent History Õ18 to Õ25 Forecast ÒQuickÓ late 2019 or early 2020 recession Chart 3 The U.S. market for commercial sectional product remains signifi- cant... the once wide gap between sectional and coiling has been closed. www.zollerconsulting.com © 2018 ZCI. All Rights Reserved 250.0 428.6 607.1 785.7 964.3 1,142.9 1,321.4 1,500.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Garage Doors for NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION $ = Millions ÒQuickÓ late 2019 or early 2020 recession Recent History Õ18 to Õ25 Forecast Chart 4 Demand for new residential doors declined to $218 million at the depth of the recession (which was 2011 for housing)... by the end of 2017 de- mand had reestablished itself at $971.0 million. www.zollerconsulting.com © 2018 ZCI. All Rights Reserved 500.0 1,214.3 1,928.6 2,642.9 3,357.1 4,071.4 4,785.7 5,500.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 $ = Millions Garage Doors for RESIDENTIAL RETROFIT Recent History Õ18 to Õ25 Forecast ÒQuickÓ late 2019 or early 2020 recession Replacement / upgraded garage doors plus new doors resulting from additions & renovation Chart 5 Chart 5 depicts the largest segment of industry demand, which is driven by the fact that there are more than 107.5 million residential garage doors in place in the U.S. as of late 2017. Continued on page 33

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