International Door & Operator Industry

JUL-AUG 2018

Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.

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55 59 V O L U M E 5 1 I S S U E 4 A U G U S T 2 0 1 8 33 Continued from page 30 MANAGEMENT into selling just 41 residential garage doors per 1,000 owner- occupied single unit houses. Windows, entry doors and kitchen cabinets have a much better replacement rate than do garage doors, yet nothing is as conspicuous on a house as is the nearly 40% of the front elevation of the dwelling where the family vehicle(s) is parked. Better door quality and vastly improved aesthetics across the last fifteen years have created a growing appreciation of garage door appearance and characteristics. Recent developments in full-view residential doors, plus the combination of smart doors and smart operators will help facilitate growth from $3.1 billion annually in 2017 to the projected level of more than $5.0 billion by 2025. Aftermarket Service & Repair 2018 to 2025 Some people find the prevailing $2.3 billion of annual U.S. garage door service sales noted in Chart 6 to be shockingly large. However, on an annual basis, fewer than 17.7% of all commercial garage doors (including grilles and fire doors), and just over 7.0% of all residential doors incur a billable service incident (certainly far more doors of each type "require" service, but much repair is quite typically deferred or ignored). Repair cost per incident varies widely, but the arithmetic averages of one survey indicated $575 for commercial doors and $131 for residential. Given these surprisingly modest repair rates and values, if anything is surprising it is that the aftermarket segment is not larger. Summary of the Forecast Chart 7 is a summary of the U.S. "core" garage door market. Remember that the data is presented at installed, or end-user values (i.e., not at wholesale or value of manufacturers' shipments). Also be aware that the industry extends beyond the core to encompass high-speed and other products. www.zollerconsulting.com © 2018 ZCI. All Rights Reserved 0.0 535.7 1,071.4 1,607.1 2,142.9 2,678.6 3,214.3 3,750.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 $ = Millions Õ18 to Õ25 Forecast Recent History Commercial & Residential AFTERMARKET SERVICE & REPAIR Service & repair expenditures include contract & other arrangements ÒQuickÓ late 2019 or early 2020 recession Chart 6 www.zollerconsulting.com © 2018 ZCI. All Rights Reserved Installed Values 2018 $ = millions 2025 $ = millions Average Change Coiling 893.9 1,210.8 4.7% Growth will accelerate as innovation evolves Commercial Sectional 883.7 1,043.5 2.6% Architects & owners have maintenance & complexity concerns NEW Residential 1,067.1 1,402.3 5.8% Autonomous Cars will reduce GDÕs per new house beginning about 2024/25 RETROFIT Residential 3,335.3 5,079.7 6.4% Increased value per GD helps o ffset autonomous car influence Aftermarket Service 2,388.2 3,277.5 5.1% Will grow at increasing rate to meet functionality demands Total CORE Garage Doors 8,568.2 12,013.8 5.4% Values include operators ONLY if simultaneously installed Summary of the ZCI 2018 to 2025 Garage Door Industry Forecast Chart 7 Chart 6: Fewer than 17.7% of all commercial garage doors (including grilles and fire doors), and just over 7.0% of all residential doors incur a billable service incident Chart 7 presents a summary of the U.S. "core" garage door market... the data is presented at in- stalled, or end-user values (i.e., not at wholesale or value of manufacturers' shipments). John E. Zoller and David H. Bowen comprise Zoller Consulting, Inc. of Wooster, Ohio. Zoller Consulting provides consultation of managerial effectiveness and financial performance of construction related businesses. They also offer customized seminars and training sessions. In addition, Zoller Consulting provides acquisition management, including finding buyers or sellers, locating funding sources, transaction structuring, and negotiating and organizing the transition to new ownership. Contact Zoller Consulting, Inc. at 330.262.8500 or John@zollerconsultinginc.com.

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