Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.
Issue link: https://idoi.epubxp.com/i/105596
MANAGEMENT by John Zoller & David Bowen, Zoller Consulting, Inc. GARAGE DOOR ACTIVITY INDEX Construction Activity Will Accelerate (But you have heard that story before) Activity Flattened (again) in Late 2012 Across 2011 and 2012, construction activity has seen a series of encouraging spurts followed by quick retreats. The Garage Door Activity Index (GDAI) has been a series of small ups and downs, producing a nearly flat line that has not been encouraging. Robert Murray, Vice President of Economic Affairs for McGraw-Hill Construction has noted the last two years have "… in effect produced an extended bottom for construction starts, in which the process of recovery is being stretched out.1" Modest construction gains realized in early 2012 were dampened later in the year, particularly as the Following some mid-2012 excitement about an apparent acceleration of homebuilding, the U.S. construction industry returned to a pattern of very deliberate recovery. By November, housing completions remained about 16.0% above November 2011, but the significant expansion anticipated in mid2012 never materialized. mesmerizing "fiscal cliff" occupied everyone's, attention. By the time you read this, some resolution will have been negotiated or the cliff will have occurred of its own momentum. As of late December 2012 the economy was facing a combination of automatic spending reductions, lapsed tax-cuts and the payroll tax "holiday" which would have sucked approximately $700 billion out of the economy, which is about 4.5% of GDP. Actually, the impact would not have been that absolute because each spending cut or tax increase will trigger responses that offset some of the fiscal impact. Never the less, construction spending is always tied to confidence, and nothing diminishes confidence more quickly than economic uncertainty. Garage door relevant non-residential construction (we should develop the acronym "GDRNC") was largely a replay of 2011, with modest increases, nearly all fueled by retrofit activity. Through the end of the third quarter of 2012, non-residential construction spending was up by just 2.6 % from the previous year. However Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.1% from the second Continued on page 52 The IDA Garage Door Activity Index 175.0 Annual Residential VPIP peaks at $619.8 billion 150.0 Continuing retrofit strength in early 2013 offsets slowing new construction, but indicators signal growth from mid '13 onward Index Value 132.5 137.8 125.0 128.8 121.5 118.1 110.3 Base Year = 2003 106.2 112.5 100.0 100.0 94.1 75.0 50.0 116.8 118.0 109.3 NonResidential Construction VPIP peaks at $709.8 billion 2012 begins with promise, but weakens late in the year 58.9 25.0 Designed, calculated and maintained for IDA by Zoller Consulting, Inc. Copyrighted material. May not be reproduced in whole or part without express written permission of the International Door Association 1 2013 Dodge Construction Outlook reported by PR Newswire December 7, 2012. V O L U M E 4 6 I S S U E 1 2 0 1 3 41