International Door & Operator Industry

JUL-AUG 2013

Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.

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Page 31 of 119

MAnAGeMEnT GaraGe Door activity inDex Long-Term Forces Bode Well for Garage Doors by John Zoller & David Bowen, Zoller Consulting, Inc. We are now in the fourth year of an excruciatingly slow recovery from the '08-'09 recession. For almost all of that time, construction news has been dreary, or at best guarded, as both housing and non-residential building activity have languished. But a confuence of very positive – and largely unanticipated - forces is revitalizing the entire economic outlook. Index Value All unemployment problems are not going to disappear (there remain too many people without the required skills to participate), but nearly 180,000 jobs are being created each month. The stock market fuctuates, as it will always do, but it has essentially doubled in value across the last four years. Additionally, infation remains very low, housing values are fnally growing again, and the federal defcit is about one-half of what 175.0 it was in 2008. But the most important positive forces for construction 150.0 generally and for garage doors particularly, are the long-term aspects 125.0 of increased domestic energy production, rapidly developing online 100.0 education programs and accelerating information 75.0 technologies. Innovation and technological expansion have always been the primary drivers of longterm growth, and will continue to be so. Each of the forces noted above – energy, education and 50.0 information - have a positive, albeit slowly evolving impact on employment, new streams of income and business productivity. Indeed, it may be the moderate rate of expansion that is fostering optimism because it will alleviate the traditional boom, then bust pattern that damages confdence and reduces expectations. produced by the International Energy Agency. In addition to predicting petroleum self-suffciency, other benefts of revitalized U.S. energy production include the fact that American-mined coal, facing declining domestic demand, is heading to Europe and China instead, which eases the trade defcit. Petroleum Self Suffciency This is a stunning turnaround from decades of U.S. dependence on imported energy sources and all the attendant geopolitical concerns. Critical to this development are innovative methods of exploration and extraction including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, which make reserves much more accessible. Such techniques have caused natural gas supplies in This is a statement that would have been dismissed as ridiculous four or fve years ago: "… Around 2017 the U.S. will replace Saudi Arabia as the world's leading oil producer, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030."1 The statement was extracted from the annual World Energy Outlook, Continued on page 30 The IDA Garage Door Activity Index Growing energy self-sufficiency, education opportunities to reduce unemployment & accelerating information tech combine to stimulate new construction investments Annual Residential VPIP peaks at $619.8 billion 132.5 137.8 128.8 Base Year = 2003 100.0 94.1 121.5 118.1 110.3 122.4 106.2 112.5 124.7 116.8 109.3 NonResidential Construction VPIP peaks at $709.8 billion 2013 growth is slow, but predictable ... may alleviate the boom/ bust cycle 58.9 25.0 Designed, calculated and maintained for IDA by Zoller Consulting, Inc. Copyrighted material. May not be reproduced in whole or part without express written permission of the International Door Association 1 "U.S. to Be World's Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says", Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times, November 12, 2012 V o l u m e 4 6 i s s u e 4 2 0 1 3 29

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