International Door & Operator Industry

SEP-OCT 2012

Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.

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Page 53 of 132

MANAGEMENT by John Zoller & David Bowen, Zoller Consulting, Inc. GARAGE DOOR ACTIVITY INDEX Garage Door Demand Accelerates Faster Than New Construction As we have repeatedly (and some would say stridently) observed, the demand for garage doors has fared better than has the overall demand for construction. This should not be surprising since owners in possession of older structures (residential, commercial, institutional and industrial) must maintain those buildings to preserve their investments. Replacing vehicle access doors with GARAGE DOOR ACTIVITY INDEX MANAGEMENT by John Zoller & David Bowen, Zoller Consulting, Inc. new, more attractive and better function- ing models is a reasonably uncomplicated and modestly priced way to enhance an aging home or business property. We have spent a lot of verbiage in the last few installments of these comments to recognize the importance of retrofi t marketing, and the values created by replacement and upgraded garage doors. However, there is now increasing evi- dence that the garage door components of new construction are commanding a greater share of the total construction budget. In other words, specifi cations for garage doors are fi nally refl ecting the fact that they are among the most conspicuous and continually activated components of any structure. New Residential Construction The malaise abounding in home build- ing activity has been so prolonged that it has been some time since we discussed new residential construction. At the 2005-06 height of the housing boom, garage door installations in new homes by dealers and other resellers amounted to almost $1.4 billion annually. By late 2009 that fi gure had diminished to less than $380 million. Since then it has crept very slowly upward, but as we have observed repeatedly, we may never again see annual housing starts exceed 2 million units as was the case in 2004 and 2005. The U.S. Census Bureau's tracking of one- unit (single-family) housing starts indicated an increase in June for the fourth month in a row to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of nearly 539,000. Never the less, our cur- rent projection for the next twelve months indicates just less than 477,000 comple- tions, and it is completions that drive garage door demand. If starts continue the upward pace of approximately 5% per month, then completions may well move above one-half million by the end of the calendar year. Continued on page 52 The IDA Garage Door Activity Index 175.0 150.0 Annual Residential VPIP peaks at $619.8 billion 125.0 Base Year = 2003 100.0 100.0 94.1 75.0 73.3 50.0 58.9 137.8 132.5 121.5 128.8 110.3 112.5 Non- Residential Construction VPIP peaks at $709.8 billion 109.3 106.2 2012 begins optimistically, but is tempered by weak momentum 115.9 116.9 117.0 117.6 GDAI Fourth Quarter Demand would accelerate if a burst of optimism fuels innovation & spending 25.0 Designed, calculated and maintained for IDA by Zoller Consulting, Inc. Copyrighted material. May not be reproduced in whole or part without express written permission of the International Door Association VOLUME 45 ISSUE 5 2012 51 Index Value

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