Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.
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MANAGEMENT by John Zoller & David Bowen, Zoller Consulting, Inc. GARAGE DOOR ACTIVITY INDEX New Housing May Lead Garage Door Demand into 2013 New housing units authorized by building permits, on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, were 45.1 percent higher in September than one year earlier! In terms of numbers, this means that as of September 2012, approximately 894,000 units were authorized, started or in some stage of completion compared to just 616,000 as of September 2011. Without belaboring the subtle differences between permits, starts and completions, garage doors are a function of house completions, which we had forecast at approximately 710,540 units for the rolling 12-month period beginning August 2012. On the surface, that forecast would now appear to be low, but the quantity of multi- unit houses being completed is below original estimates, while the number of single-units is greater. Actually this is good for door dealers, since single unit dwellings require many more garage doors than do multi-unit dwellings. The average garage door requirements for new residences in the U.S. are 1.87 doors per new single unit house, and .26 doors per multi-unit house. The requirements vary widely by geography, by urbanization and by house value. In the halcyon days of home building (2004-06), more doors were sold for new houses than for retrofi t (more units, not dollars), but in recent years, replacements and upgrades have overwhelmed doors for new dwellings by over four to one. As this new wave of home construction grows, that ratio will decline, but retrofi t customers will continue to account for more than 78% of the residential garage door volume. Adding to the optimism of the jump in new permits are two positive facts: Mortgage rates are now near record lows, and the Federal Reserve has announced it will buy $40.0 billion in mortgages every month, which will likely to keep rates low for the foreseeable future. The low mortgage rates, coupled with affordable housing prices and a drop in unemployment have combined to stimulate housing sales. At mid- summer, sales of new single-family homes were up 22.5% compared to 2011 (remember, only about 71% Continued on page 52 The IDA Garage Door Activity Index 175.0 Annual 150.0 Residential VPIP peaks at $619.8 billion 125.0 Base Year = 2003 100.0 100.0 94.1 75.0 50.0 58.9 Non- Residential Construction VPIP peaks at $709.8 billion 2012 modest growth but momentum remains positive 112.5 109.3 137.8 132.5 128.8 121.5 116.9 117.0 110.3 106.2 115.9 117.6 GDAI First Quarter '13 Demand reflects expanding new home construction & stable nonresidential building activity 118.1 25.0 Designed, calculated and maintained for IDA by Zoller Consulting, Inc. Copyrighted material. May not be reproduced in whole or part without express written permission of the International Door Association VOLUME 45 ISSUE 6 2012 51 Index Value