MANAGEMENT
by John Zoller & David Bowen,
Zoller Consulting, Inc.
A More Stable & Residential
Market May Be Upon Us
The IDA Garage Door Activity Index
175.0
Annual
Residential
VPIP peaks at
$619.8 billion
150.0
New residential construction finally
accelerates and emphasis on building
productivity fosters stable, but
growing commercial door demand
Index Value
132.5
137.8
125.0
128.8
Base Year
= 2003
121.5
118.1
110.3
106.2
112.5
94.1
75.0
50.0
118.0
122.4
109.3
100.0
100.0
116.8
NonResidential
Construction
VPIP peaks at
$709.8 billion
Late 2012 economic
flattening was
cautionary, but not
injurious
58.9
25.0
Designed, calculated and maintained for IDA by Zoller Consulting, Inc. Copyrighted material.
May not be reproduced in whole or part without express written permission of the International Door Association
A
cross the last several months a lot of positive economic
momentum has caused the construction industry to at
last view the future with cautious optimism. The monthly
Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which anticipates future
economic performance from a broad perspective, has been up
for eight of the past ten months, and over 2.0 million new jobs
have been added by employers since early 2012.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes
the ���purchasing managers index��� (PMI), which is among
the most highly regarded gauges of manufacturing and
general business health. The PMI rose to 53.1 in January, up
from 50.2 in December and 49.9 in November. Readings
above 50 indicate overall industry growth, and signal that
manufacturing activity has rebounded from a brief and
seasonal weakening in late 2012. Most importantly, the latest
PMI reading stands well above the 12-month average of 51.6.
Stated simply, Americans are both producing and
consuming more output. Never the less, there remain many
extremely cautious forecasters who worry incessantly about
the weak economy in Europe, budget de���cits in the U.S. and
continuing unemployment. For example, sales of new capital
equipment increased almost 11% during 2012, yet the 2013
forecast increase of only 4 to 5% has led one analyst to state
������the industry looks to be exiting a strong replacement
cycle.��� That would appear to be putting a very negative spin
on continuing growth.
Continued on page 40
V O L U M E
4 6
I S S U E
2
2 0 1 3
39