Garage door industry magazine for garage door dealers, garage door manufacturers, garage door distributors, garage door installers, loading docks, garage door operators and openers, gates, and tools for the door industry.
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MANAGEMENT by John Zoller & David Bowen, Zoller Consulting, Inc. GARAGE DOOR ACTIVITY INDEX The overall market for construction spending is brighter now than at any time since 2005. There are numerous forces that are driving this optimism, but among the most prominent are increased domestic energy production, continuing modest interest rates that stimulate the housing market, and improving employment fgures that support growing consumer and business confdence levels. According to the AIA's semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, non- residential construction spending is predicted to grow by 7.6% in 2014, with commercial projects (retail, warehouses, lodging and offce) leading the way with an 11.5% projected increase. 1 It is also important that the weak market for institutional construction (schools, hospitals, public buildings, etc.) will fnally see some resurgence and grow by over 5.0% in 2014. Depending on the prognosticator, new home construction is expected to grow anywhere from 9.5% to 24.0%, with the 12.0% forecast increase to $379.6 billion by FMI in its 2014 U.S. Markets Construction Overview being a dependable average. 2 There are numerous positive factors infuencing demand for single-family housing, including increasing prices for existing real estate, which fosters the ability to trade-up. Also mortgage rates remain near recent lows, and fewer foreclosures inhibit the marketplace. The construction pace of new multi- family buildings will slow from its recent Growing Optimism Across the Boards for 2014 Continued on page 14 double digit activity, but demand growth remains and, there is a lot of real estate investment funding that favors apartment and condominium projects. The various sectors of the construction industry are all expecting some growth, some more expansively than others. Manufacturing, which offers many garage door opportunities, will fnally reverse its negative number and grow by 3.2% to 4.0%, and transportation should continue its 7.0% growth trajectory. While the level of construction activity remains nearly 30.0% below the pre- recession peak, the overall demand for new building projects will make 2014 the best year for the Garage Door Industry since the recession alarms began sounding in the winter of 2006-07. 13 1 Rosenfeld, Karissa. "AIA Construction Forecast Predicts Brighter Prognosis in 2014" 01 Aug 2013. ArchDaily.com. 2 FMI, 2014 U.S. Markets Construction Overview, November 7, 2013 58.9 94.1 100.0 112.5 128.8 137.8 132.5 121.5 108.8 104.5 104.6 107.3 119.8 125.1 128.3 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 125.0 150.0 175.0 Index Value The IDA Garage Door Activity Index Base Year = 2003 Designed, calculated and maintained for IDA by Zoller Consulting, Inc. Copyrighted material. May not be reproduced in whole or part without express written permission of the International Door Association Annual Residential VPIP peaks at $619.8 billion Non- Residential Construction VPIP peaks at $709.8 billion Construction activity is finally growing across the board, with even the weakness in institutional demand disappearing ... new residential building will grow by at least 12% and commercial expansion may top 10% by late in the year 2013 employment gains fuel growth more so than any other economic factor 1/24/14 10:49 AM